«Déja vu»: ¿Estaremos cometiendo los mismos errores que en 2008?

He tenido un déja vu

De vez en cuando, al presenciar un hecho, ver una imagen, una escena, leer algún texto, o incluso al oír algún sonido, nos invade una sensación de que se está repitiendo un suceso que ya hemos vivido anteriormente, aunque sea completamente nuevo. Es esa sensación que se conoce en todas partes con la expresión francesa “déjà vu”.

A mí me ha pasado hace pocos días, pero de una forma diferente. Esta vez no fue por un hecho concreto, el déja vu se desencadenó por la lectura de varias noticias distintas, en distintos días. Ninguna de ellas por separado disparó en mi esa extraña sensación, pero el conjunto me hizo pensar que “esto ya lo he vivido”.

Esta serie de noticias me provocaron un Déja vu

Algunos artículos trataban sobre:

  • la solvencia de las entidades bancarias y las formas de incrementarla. Incluidas las fusiones bancarias “defensivas”.
  • lo buena que le parece al Banco de España la idea de que los bancos españoles entren en fusiones transfronterizas.
  • el hecho de que el “scrip dividend” (o ampliación de capital encubierta o pagar el dividendo con cromos, como prefieran llamarlo) va a seguir acompañándonos una larga temporada.
  • el FMI rebaja otra vez sus previsiones de crecimiento, pero descarta una recesión.
  • unos comentarios de agudos analistas que decían que “esta vez es distinto”. Es decir, que los análisis tradicionales ya no sirven, y que por eso la inversión de la curva de tipos norteamericana ya no es predicción de nada.

Se disparó algo en mi interior. Esa sensación de “esto ya lo he vivido” que inevitablemente produce un cierto desasosiego.

Pero en este caso más, porque este déjà vu me recordó inmediatamente sensaciones tanto de los prolegómenos, como de lo más crudo de las últimas crisis, de las que aún no nos hemos repuesto. Eso bien lo saben los bancos centrales, que han visto que no han sido suficientes las enormes cantidades de medicina que nos han administrado. Espero que no sea porque nos hayan provocado adicción.

Conclusión: En todo déja vu podemos ver lo que es distinto

Lo que sí parece distinto son los mensajes sobre la situación que nos lanzan desde los partidos políticos. O más bien la ausencia de ellos, incluso durante su campaña electoral. Supongo que influye el hecho de que el partido que negó la llegada de la última crisis fuera el que ganó aquellas elecciones generales.

En fin, lo que tienen los déjà vu es que nos crean la impresión errónea de haber vivido la situación. Se trata de algo nuevo y por tanto distinto de lo anterior. Por una jugarreta de nuestro cerebro, creemos que “ya lo hemos vivido”, cuando no es así.  Por eso estoy tranquilo.

¿Te ha gustado este artículo? ¡Consulta otros parecidos y comparte! 😉

Ignacio García-Baamonde - asesor financiero EFPAIgnacio García- Baamonde, asesor financiero EFPA European Financial Planner (EFP)

 

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